ForwardKeys, which has the world’s largest and freshest database of flight tickets, revealed the performance of top the world’s top travel destinations for 2022 in an extensive review. The country list is led by the Dominican Republic, the city list by Antalya in Türkiye.

According to the latest available air ticketing data (combining arrivals up to 18 October with bookings to the end of the year), the Dominican Republic is on track to welcome 5% more visitors than it did in 2019. The Dominican Republic is followed by Turkey, Costa Rica and Mexico, which will welcome an equal number of visitors.

Looking at the world on a regional basis, one must admire Caribbean countries for their early efforts to sustain visitor arrivals in the face of the pandemic and their continued growth in an increasingly competitive travel landscape.

Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys

The strong representation of Central American and Caribbean destinations towards the top of the list reflects the relative amount of US outbound traffic and the approach taken by many highly tourism-dependent countries in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Throughout the pandemic, these countries imposed less severe COVID-19 travel restrictions than elsewhere, and in doing so maintained their visitor economies. As the year progressed, they consolidated their leadership position and have started to exceed pre-pandemic volumes.

ForwardKeys also identified several major trends that have characterized travel in 2022. The strongest is recovery, as pandemic related travel restrictions have been progressively relaxed and pent-up demand to travel has been released. Also, a recent revival in business travel and major global events such as the World Expo in Dubai and the FIFA World Cup in Qatar are helping boost travel numbers.

“The Middle East also stands out, as it has helped to accelerate its recovery by hosting major global events such as the Dubai World Expo, Formula One grand prix in various Gulf locations and, above all, the FIFA World Cup in Qatar”, said Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys. “The Gulf has also seen a relatively robust comeback in business travel, a segment whose recent revival has come as a surprise to many.”

However, the recovery has not been without its obstacles. Initially, the highly virulent Omicron variant caused a great deal of concern and the reimposition of travel restrictions early in the year. Another factor holding back recovery was staff shortages, which resulted in chaotic scenes in airports before the start of the summer season.

Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine had a massive impact on travel to and from Russia, as numerous countries imposed bans on direct flights, it has not caused long-haul travel to Europe to decline as much as some might have expected. Travel to Southern Europe, especially to Greece, down 12%, Portugal, down 16%, and Turkey, flat, and to Iceland, down 14%, are set to hold up well. However, ForwardKeys expects that second-order consequences of the war in Ukraine, such as rising fuel prices and inflation, will delay the travel recovery.

The Asia Pacific region, which has been characterized by stiffer travel restrictions, most notably in China with its Zero Covid policy, has started to recover. People traveling to visit friends and relatives has been the driver, with Pakistan and Bangladesh just down 5% and 8% from 2019 levels. Leisure travel to the Maldives, down 7%, and Fiji, down 22%, both tropical island paradises, are set to hold up well.

Consumer demand for beach holidays has led the travel revival, with business travel and city tourism lagging until the start of the autumn. There has also been a trend towards travel in premium cabins, partly fueled by what’s been coined as “revenge travel”, which has seen consumers spending more on value-added travel services. That syndrome, plus the increasing cost of fuel has driven a strong increase in fares.

Among top destination cities, the best performer is Antalya, the largest city on the Turkish riviera. The city is set to welcome 66% more visitors than it did in the equivalent period in 2019. Its extraordinary performance has been assisted by a few factors, most notably the weakness of the Turkish lira and the policy of the Turkish government to remain relatively open to tourism during the pandemic, and to continue welcoming Russian visitors.